Shaving Theories with Occam's Razor: Bayesian Model Comparison (2/4)

by Prof. Roberto Trotta (Imperial College London)

Wednesday 28 Nov 2018, 10:00 → 12:00 Europe/Brussels

E/3rd floor-E.349 - Seminar room (E.349) (Marc de Hemptinne (chemin du Cyclotron, 2, Louvain-la-Neuve))

This is the second lecture of the week given by Prof Roberto Trotta, recipient of the "Chaire Georges Lemaître" for the academic year 2018-2019.

---

Abstract:

Many of the questions in astroparticle physics, cosmology and particle physics aim at
establishing which theoretical model is the best explanation for the available data.
Classically, theories can only be falsified by ruling them out (the Popperian view). I will
demonstrate how the Bayesian model comparison approach is more general, enabling
physicists to correctly reward models that make precise predictions that are then verified by
experiment or observation. I will contrast this with the hypothesis testing paradigm, and discuss consequences for our understanding of what a "significant result" means. I will
illustrate analytical and numerical methods for the implementation of Bayesian model
comparison with examples from cosmology and particle physics.

 

 

 

CGM_2018_Lecture_3.pdf